Nassib, Dysert, and Manuel: A Metrics Breakdown

Posted on February 8, 2013

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QBTier2Composite

To see the individual scouting reports

Ryan Nassib | EJ Manuel | Zac Dysert

After posting the first quarterback breakdown, I had people asking for a 2nd tier including some of the guys that we could see go in the 2nd through 4th rounds. Last year, a study of Cousins and Osweiler just showed sub-par prospects, so I expected the same this year. Not so, the second tier of QBs are simply a study in mystery. Statistically, any of them could be the best quarterback in this class. Now, no one is expecting EJ Manuel to go number 1 overall, but these stats could give you some pause when ranking your quarterbacks. Two of these quarterbacks have the best deep accuracy in this class. One had better deep accuracy than RGIII did. One has the second best 11-20 yard accuracy of any QB in the last two classes. What to make of it? Let’s find out.

As always, these stats are based off of me watching game film and writing down the factors that go into a play. I marked down where the ball was caught, what the formation was, why the ball was incomplete and many more factors. In each section, I’m going to post the relevant chart and then make comments on it.

Where Are They Throwing the Ball?

TargetsQB2

  • Ryan Nassib’s distribution of passes could be Andrew Luck’s from last year. Instead of writing it all out, I’ll just put up a chart to show how similar they are. Aside from a 2.5 point swing in the 6-10/11-20 ranges, they could be the same chart.(These are the targets, they only mark where the ball was caught)
  • NassibLuck
  • Dysert went deep nearly half as often as the AvgQB. Where the AvgQB went deep 14% of the time, Dysert only threw deep 7.88% of the time. The majority of his targets are concentrated  in the 1-10 yard range at 59%.
  • EJ Manuel only threw it past ten yards 26% of the time. This ties Barkley for the lowest amount in the last two classes. Was that Jimbo Fisher’s offense or Manuel just deciding to hit the easy passes often? Most likely a combination of both.
  • All three QBs threw in the 1-5 yard range far more than average. All hover in the 32-36% range for 1-5 yard passes, approximately 8-10% more than average.

How Accurate Were They?

CompPerc2

The color coding are comparisons to the AvgQB, thus green is above average, yellow is average, and red is below average. I have also taken out drops, for what I call the Perfect Receiver Rating, thus the completion percentages aren’t what you’d see in the box scores.

  • These numbers are extremely strange.
  • Dysert is the most accurate deep passer in the last two classes. However, as we saw above, he only went deep 7.88% of the time. It’s likely an anomaly, but this completion percentage would make him better at the deep ball than RGIII was (62.5%).
  • EJ Manuel is the most accurate 11-20 yard passer in this class. Again, Manuel only went to this zone 13% of the time, but completed his passes an amazing 73% of the time. That would be second best in the last two classes only behind RGIII (81%)
  • EJ also has the worst deep ball in this class. I don’t understand this, he’s super accurate from 11-20 yards but then suddenly drops off when he has to throw past 20 yards.
  • Ryan Nassib is average or above average in every zone. He was extremely accurate at the deep ball, even after throwing there 10% of the time. His 11-20 yard completion percentage of 58.5% is impressive given that he threw to that zone 28% of the time. This would make him and Barkley the only two QBs in this class to not be below average in any zone.

Adjusted Completion %

The last bit of information I have is going to require a bit of explanation. My goal was to take out the variability of systems they all played in. Thus, how would Zac Dysert have performed in Matt Barkley’s shoes? This is imperfect, but it gives you a feel for how the systems helped or harmed them.

What I’ve done is taken out drops and then used my composite of targets in each zone from last year’s QBs to create an average system. Thus, I took their completion percentages, total passes, and the average system to find out what their overall completion percentage would have been in the average system.

AdjCompPerc

  • The top number is the adjusted completion percentage and the bottom number is the change from their overall completion percentage (with drops already taken out)
  • We can see that Manuel would have the second highest adjusted completion percentage in this class. His completion percentage still dropped, due to the high number of ‘gimme’ passes, but only by 1.12%
  • Nassib and Dysert’s numbers didn’t drop much. Neither ran what could be considered an ‘average offense’, but when the high targets on short passes are taken out, it’s balanced by the high completion percentages on deep passes (even though they didn’t throw them often)

One final bit of info, I looked at the average distance that the QB’s passes traveled. This is really only yardage (before YAC) divided by completions.

AvgDistQB2

  • Despite throwing to the 11-20 yard range often, the average distance of Nassib’s completions is quite low at 4.94
  • Dysert’s is second highest in this QB class at 7.43 yards.

I’m going to present a few more charts with no comments. Among them are play result, completion percentage by down, total yardage by quarter, and red zone yardage.

Before the stats, if you’ve liked this, you can follow me at . I do work pretty much every day breaking down prospects and I’ll be tweeting out interesting stats that I come across , future articles/breakdowns (CBs are most likely next), or let you know when I post new things (Tavon Austin individual breakdown) . Thanks a lot!

Result:

ResultQB2

*Interceptions were factored out of this chart, thus each column will not add up to 100%

**Throw-aways were counted as “Single Coverage”

***Overthrows had to be passes that either were too high or too far in front of the wide receiver

By Down:

DownQB2

*N/D stands for No Data and it was because both Dysert and Manuel did not pass often enough on 4th down to be significant

Percentage of Yardage By Quarter:

ByQuarterChart

Completion % By Formation:

FormationQB2

Red Zone Yardage By Season: 

RZQBs2

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Posted in: Quarterbacks