Ryan Nassib: Statistical Scouting Report

Posted on February 8, 2013

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To see the other scouting reports:

Ryan Nassib | EJ Manuel | Zac Dysert

‘Ryan Nassib seems to have two distinct camps, he’s either worthy of a second round pick or later or he’s the best quarterback in the class. Granted the latter group is under-represented, but he still has supporters to spout his credentials as a top tier QB. This post might actually help the latter group make their case a little bit. While we know that statistics are not the end all, be all – they’ve certainly made me pause and take another look at Nassib.

As always: these stats are based off of me watching game film and writing down the factors that go into a play. I marked down where the ball was caught, what the formation was, why the ball was incomplete and many more factors. In each section, I’m going to post the relevant chart and then make comments on it.

Where is He Throwing the Ball?

NassibTargets

  • He throws significantly less screens than the AvgQB. Throwing screens on 7.7% of the time, Nassib’s offense did not push the screen game much.
  • As is true with many QBs in this class, he throws the 1-5 yard pass often. This is pretty easy to see on tape, similar to Barkley, Nassib throws the 5 yard slant often. Good for 37% of his total passes, the 1-5 yard pass is second highest in this class behind Tyler Wilson.
  • Interestingly, Nassib threw the 11-20 yard ball 26.5% of the time. This is actually a good sign for Nassib, he’s throwing “NFL depth passes” more than anyone in the last two classes

How Accurate Is He?

NassibCompPerc

  • He isn’t below average in any particular zone. To be fair, I don’t really count accuracy in the screen game because I think that’s more variable than any other factor. However, he’s still average to above-average in every zone.
  • Given how often he threw the 11-20 yard ball, his 58.5% accuracy is excellent. Anyone throwing a difficult ball often, and doing it well should get serious consideration as a serious prospect.
  • His deep ball is excellent at 62.5%. Like Barkley, Nassib gets the “smart, leader” labels applied liberally. Those are really code for weak armed, game managers. His deep ball completion percentage of 62.5% doesn’t indicate that.

Where Are His Incompletions Coming From?

NassibResult

  • A ridiculous amount of his passes were dropped. Nearly 10% of his passes were dropped. His overall completion percentage would have gone up drastically had these passes been caught at a normal rate.
  • There don’t seem to be any other trends. All QBs in this class tend to hover around 10% for overthrows. His throws into single coverage may be a little high, but it’s not overwhelmingly alarming.

Any Other Red Flags/Positives?

  • His 3rd down completion percentage is a woeful 50%. I’m not sure why it’s so low or if it would translate to the NFL, but you want your QB to be converting 3rd downs more often than that.

NassibDown

  • Nassib’s completion percentage under center and in shotgun are wildly divergent. He’s much more accurate under center than in shotgun. Which is interesting, because it tends to be the opposite for most QBs. 

NassibFormation
Overall

Under Tyler Wilson’s scouting report, I wrote that people wanted to like him to find a dark horse. Anyone who is looking for a dark horse needs to stop looking at Tyler Wilson and check out Nassib. I don’t think Nassib is the number 1 pick or even the number 1 quarterback, but I don’t see how you can look over some of his stats. People are concerned about his arm, but he’s completing 62.5% of his deep passes. That’s cognitive dissonance at its finest.

You have to make your own decision, but make sure to question the prevailing narrative when looking at Nassib. His statistics suggest he may have more abilities than some people like to give him credit for. Maybe he’ll turn out to be exactly what they expect, nothing more than a game manager. However, in the interim I think you should take a second look at Nassib with these stats in mind.

If you’ve found this kind of thing interesting, you can follow me at . I do work pretty much every day breaking down prospects and I’ll be tweeting out interesting stats that I come across , future articles/breakdowns (CBs are most likely next), or let you know when I post new things (Tavon Austin individual breakdown) . Thanks a lot!

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Posted in: Quarterbacks