Zac Dysert: Statistical Scouting Report

Posted on February 8, 2013

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To see the other scouting reports:

Ryan Nassib | EJ Manuel | Zac Dysert

I’ll admit, I saw Zac Dysert in person in 2009 when Miami (OH) played Northwestern at Ryan Field. That game, as a freshman, Dysert went 17/36 with 3 interceptions. Needless to say I didn’t think I’d be writing about him four years later as a legitimate draft prospect after watching that game. Nevertheless, here we are. Dysert, like all of these second tier prospects, is extremely intriguing and partially confusing. What do we make of his high completion percentage down field and his generally weak competition? I can’t answer the second question (I guarantee there will be much pontificating upon that subject by talking heads), but I can look at the first one.

As always: these stats are based off of me watching game film and writing down the factors that go into a play. I marked down where the ball was caught, what the formation was, why the ball was incomplete and many more factors. In each section, I’m going to post the relevant chart and then make comments on it.

Where Did He Throw The Ball?

DysertTargets

  • Over 58% of Dysert’s passes were between 1-10 yards. This compares to only ~45% for the AvgQB. I don’t think this is necessarily a bad thing, however I would have preferred those extra attempts hadn’t come at the expense of the deeper throws.
  • Only 26% of his passes were past 10 yards. Like I said in the overall breakdown, this is tied for lowest in the last two classes with Matt Barkley. However, the deep percentage is quite low at 8%, the lowest of anyone in the last two classes.
  • The intermediate and deep targets will come into play later. Keep these in mind as we move on to the completion percentage, because they will remain important.

How Accurate Was He?

DysertComp

  • The answer is, pretty accurate overall. After adjusting for drops Dysert comes out at an average completion percentage of 69.7%, very respectable.
  • His 11-20 yard and 20+ yard accuracies are insanely high. As I noted above, this is where the amount of targets come into play. The high completion percentages are likely a factor the offense only calling deep pass plays that were ‘easy’ to complete. I don’t think it’s likely he can keep those up on a consistent basis more often and against tough NFL defenses.
  • His 6-10 yard completion percentage is astonishingly bad. This is by far the worst completion percentage in that zone in the last two classes. Given that he threw here 25% of the time, we can safely assume that with increased targets his completion percentage downfield is going to decrease dramatically. I think this will apply dramatically as he starts to throw more downfield in the NFL.

Where Did His Incompletions Come From?

DysertResults

  • There’s almost nothing significant or interesting here. The majority of his incompletion distribution is pretty standard for this class. Both his overthrows and throws into single coverage are slightly high, but close enough to average to not worry.

Any Other Positive/ Red Flags?

  • Just like Nassib, Dysert’s 3rd down completion percentage is quite low. At 47.6%, he didn’t even complete half of his attempts on third down. It’s not even like his receivers dropped an excess of targets, so I’m not quite sure why this happened. This definitely requires more tape study, because I don’t understand how you could drop off so drastically under pressure.

DysertDown

  • He probably shouldn’t throw out of the pistol in the NFL. This is another one of those random things. He was actually above his overall completion percentage under center and in shotgun, but his inaccuracy in the pistol dragged his overall completion percentage down.

DysertFormation

  • The average distance of a completion was 7.43 yards. This actually makes me feel slightly more comfortable with Dysert’s accuracy further downfield. What this likely means is that his throws within the 1-5 yard and 6-10 yard zones were neared to 5 and 10 than they were 1 and 6. That is, he threw deeper in those zones rather than shorter. This is good for second highest in this class behind Mike Glennon.

Overall

As is true with every single one of these prospects, I’m going to try to let you decide what you think of these stats. I’ve seen multiple interpretations of the statistics in every one of these posts I’ve put up. Some people will be inclined to say this shows Dysert can project his excellent deep accuracy to the NFL, others will say it’s a fluke. For whatever its worth, Dysert scares me a little bit. I mentioned that Barkley threw a similar amount of deep passes, but I feel more comfortable with Barkley’s body of work and competition.

When I see Dysert playing some overall weak teams and don’t see a good distribution of passes, I instantly get nervous. To me, Dysert is a poor man’s Nassib. Both have similar issues on third down and have higher completion percentages downfield on limited attempts. Unlike Nassib, I don’t think Dysert has some of the prerequisites to make me rank him higher than the other QBs with these numbers. However, people will interpret these stats differently and that’s the joy of the evaluation process.

If you’ve found this kind of thing interesting, you can follow me at . I do work pretty much every day breaking down prospects and I’ll be tweeting out interesting stats that I come across , future articles/breakdowns (CBs are most likely next), or let you know when I post new things (Tavon Austin individual breakdown) . Thanks a lot!

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Posted in: Quarterbacks